1999 Summer Forum

In the midst of market conditions that continue to be unsettled, EMTA's Annual Summer Forum in London was held on July 8, 1999 at the offices of Salomon Smith Barney. EMTA Vice Chair Juan del Azar (Merrill Lynch) welcomed the crowd of 160 people with a brief overview of EMTA's recent activities.

Jerome Booth (Ashmore Investment Management) moderated a panel featuring sell-side analysts Robin Hubbard (Chase), Philip Poole (ING Barings) and Karim Abdel-Motaal (JP Morgan). The panel agreed that Argentina's Convertibility Plan  was unlikely to be scrapped, and voiced support for the IMF despite some misgivings that G-7 political considerations influence IMF policy decisions. There was a general consensus that US interest rates would not be raised more than once in the near term and that spreads on Emerging Markets bonds would tighten by the end of 1999, although some panelists remained markedly more pessimistic than others.

A second panel of investors was led by Salomon Smith Barney's Mark Franklin. Panelists included Maryam Ettehadieh (Credit Suisse Asset Management), Tom Fallon (Fortis Investment Management), Simon Treacher (Morgan Grenfell Asset Management and an EMTA Director) and Ingrid Iversen (Rothschild Asset Management).

Most Panelists expressed cautious optimism that Ecuador would avoid a Brady default and discounted the contagion effect of a possible Chinese yuan devaluation. There was considerable debate about how easily Russian debt could be restructured, and whether Brazil's economic recovery would continue unhindered. Panelists also discussed the effects of new market indices, economic performance in Mexico, convergence plays in Eastern Europe, cross-over investors and high rates on Turkish local debt.